Three months to go – the popular vote looks even – but the electoral vote forecast has a wide spread.
The lead is growing.
From Tomasky/Pwire:
“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know — or should — but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.”
Nate Silver puts the forecast for Obama winning at 71% and growing – with 300 electoral votes, Romney with 238.
Read more.
Romney is poison… very expensive poison..
Oh yes.. and it will show.. over and over the next three months..
I sincerely hope so… you might or might not find this interesting http://hellenjc.wordpress.com/2012/08/05/guns-what-are-they-good-for/
Very troubling – and important – post. We could only hope that there will be some change at some point.. Mayor Bloomberg is waging a war against the NRA lobby these days, which could be a bellwether or add some pressure hopefully. Lots of politicians are threatened to silence on this issue.
But then another shooting happened today. A temple in Wisconsin. More deaths. More senseless violence. I’m not sure what to say anymore…
Here’s Onion’s take on Colorado – it speaks for me:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/sadly-nation-knows-exactly-how-colorado-shootings,28857/
Helen….
The American Gun laws are NOT gonna change…..
The Republicans won’t touch them….
Neither will the Democrats….
American’s, on the whole, LIKE their guns, and outside the major cities, will bring voter wrath down on ANY politician that seriously tries to take them away….
But then you know that, right?
http://www.politicaldog101.com/?p=53637
http://www.politicaldog101.com/?p=53854
for the record….. we have MORE than enough guns in this country….
mac, I think the very savvy Nate Silver has it right. Romney is starting to look very weak. All this taxes, Bain stuff,, off shore accounts . . . it’s taking its toll. And it will get worse.
Yep. Very week indeed.. The popular vote might end up close, but not the electoral votes I think. Obama appears to be tipping the swing states too, at the moment.
And if so, looking at the bigger picture;
Obama wins a second term, defense is slashed to half, Bush Tax cuts expires, then a round of spending cuts – and the budget situation will get a lot better.
A worry is Congress though – and the superpac money. Secret money doesn’t help a flawed candidate like Romney much, but state races could be different.
But all in all, Obama might end up with good accomplishments on economy, health care, foreign policy – and some long term initiatives in education, manufacturing and green energy.
If he adds a fix in campaign finance too, it could be one of the better American Presidencies. From a very tough spot. But we’ll see.