Three months to go – the popular vote looks even – but the electoral vote forecast has a wide spread.
“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know — or should — but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.”
Nate Silver puts the forecast for Obama winning at 71% and growing – with 300 electoral votes, Romney with 238.