Ohio and Jobs Bill.

Watching the President pumping up the audience with “Yes we can” “Pass this Bill” in Ohio yesterday, one could start to wonder how wise this strategy really is.

Jobs Bill - now with adhesive binding.

It has a certain touch to walk through the home districts of Cantor and Boehner with nationwide attention, but this bill is very small and won’t do any wonders for jobs or the deficit short term. So even if it’s pushed through Congress we could very likely face a flat economy in 2012. And then the ammo is on the rightwingers: the second stimulus also failed.

And overselling now might be a little bit early, when the election is next November.

Romney’s Jobs Plan: A short review.

A consultant's take on running a country.

Full document here. The whole thing is a bit dry and consultant-like, but it’s also informative and revealing. It starts with an ode to “growth”, and a letter from Romney. First paragraphs discredits the stimulus in ’09 – a cheap shot. It’s also unprofessional, as he could’ve stayed on a more neutral path just pointing out the lack of economic results after three years with the Obama Administration. But it’s campaining and politics – and it might work well with the audience.

He also has some plans for the first day in office: “On Inauguration Day, he will submit a jobs package to Congress consisting of at least five major proposals and will demand that Congress act on the package within 30 days.” Good luck.

The rest is lots of economics and charts. And a narrow mindset. You can’t run a country like a business. It’s not the same. Society is not only about profits, and the power structure is not the same.

On policy proposals the marginal tax remains in place, corporate taxes are down, regulations off, more free trade, cap federal spending at 20% of GDP, shrink government, and pass the balanced budget amendment.

No mention of defense, no thoughts on social issues. It’s a straightly defined jobs plan, but it also has the air of a plan for his presidency. And the general problem with corporate mindsets are usually narrow thinking and lack of a larger context. And an unwillingness to accept the wider blends of human societies. Unless you cut defense, reform social programs and increase revenue – boosting corporate profits will do nothing for the people and country.

But as a plan for the 1% – sure.

GOP debate, with Mitt and Perry.

The debate in the Reagan Library started out with all eyes on Romney and Perry last night – trading barbs and defending their previous statements and records in both business and politics. The rest of the candidates seem almost irrelevant and out of place at this point, even though these things could still change a lot in the coming months.

One of the biggest highlights was probably in the opening of the show – going straight to Romney and Perry – and Romney establishing authority and the upper hand.

Skip to 8:30 for the first clash. Big moment.

Other notes from the debate:

• Aggressive opening by the moderators. Harris from Politico seemed too nervous and fumbling. A few glitches only made things worse.
• Huntsman seems kind of misplaced. He’s hitting all the wrong notes about experiences overseas and his knowledge of foreign languages. This is not a democratic audience.
• Perry was fumbling and perhaps not ready for the national stage yet. But he might pick up in another round or two.
• Bachmann lost campaign manager Ed Rollins last week, who left the train after Perry entered the race. She’s a sideshow now.
• Mitt Romney has the body language and calmness of a President. Voice, too.
• Romney’s catch-phrase “[Obama] is a nice guy, but he doesn’t have a clue how to get this country working again” rings true.
• Romney is making snippets of Presidential speeches as he goes along, and he’s doing it well. Big picture and mix of reason and emotion. And he’s treating the other candidates as his own group, sort of like co-workers he’s helping, but dominates.
• Perry fumbles massively on science and evolution. He needs to work on his diversions and answers. Mentioning Galileo might not be that smart when he’s trying to discredit scientists in general – as that sort of proves the whole point. Then, as now, part of the ruling classes ridiculed science in order to preserve power.
• Mitt Romney sounds really passionate about his new jobs plan and operational strategy to make America competitive among the nations around the world. And it might be a constructive path. Better education and less corruption in government would be among the first steps. But that’s probably not what he means.

But either way – the race is down to two persons, and the strongest contender against Obama is likely Romney. But we’ll see how the next debates unfolds.

 

Anatomy of a crisis.

It happens slow at first.. then all at once.

So many big news at once these days.. An inadequate debt-deal, a hurtful process, treasury downgrade, two days of diving markets. And gloomy outlook.

But it might be useful to look at this summer in the bigger picture – that of hurtful policies over three decades, with unsustainable budgets and unsustainable distribution among the population. That model for running a country could work well for some decades – but it always breaks down. More wants more, and the rest are increasingly left without food, work or a place to live. You might fish more than the natural breeding in a pond for a while, but it will always be empty in the end.

And while the recipe for a fix right now is quite simple on paper – you cut spending on defense and entitlements, and raise some taxes – you just can’t get it through. A few people have too hard a grip on the government, and a huge part of the population are deliberately dis-educated and fed nonsense and delusional thinking over generations.

Thus a crisis evolves – and not just a tough debate with a reasonable outcome.

So let’s just hope the moderate right speaks up more strongly pretty soon – which they probably will – as most of them are rational people with habits of long-term thinking. And when that happens, maybe the progressives and moderate left could grow stronger as well, so the loud fringes get marginalized.

In the meantime, more market dives and noise might in some ways be just necessary steps on the path to better days. And America has survived and emerged stronger after much worse crises than this.

Downgrade.

Kleptocracy hits a wall.

So there it was – one of the big three agencies putting US on a second-rate level in regards to the ability and willingness to fulfill its financial obligations and pay the bills on time.

And in one way it’s just a very lagging indicator, and something that lowers the US position on the economic credit list – after already falling way down on other national indexes like education quality, health care, infrastructure, political system and federal budget sustainability. It’s just the facts.

The S&P had previously put the bar on a $4tr deficit reduction over a decade to maintain the AAA rating, a similar amount to what the political leaders initially tried but failed to accomplish, and thus the agency lost faith in the country’s outlook after the debt-deal landed short of this requirement. The agencies are somewhat reluctant to state things public that could turn them into political players – but between the lines it’s all obvious – a balanced approach could’ve avoided this.

So now the US is downgraded by US rating agencies (top chinese agencies have already done it twice this year), the deficit is still growing, the debt crossed 100% of GDP last week, unemployment is standing still (with unofficial numbers at 20%), companies are hoarding cash, new jobs are made overseas, and a bunch of delusional and angry folks in Congress are blocking everything.

This has to shred at some point.

Watching some interesting cable shows on russian or iranian state tv networks gave some refreshing perspectives last night. Lots of centrist and pragmatic americans are starting to fill up the international talk shows and saying things out loud that would’ve been quickly banned by the US corporate media. Moderate politicians, academics and pundits are sharing their straight views with the rest of the world. The gist of it: the 1% parasites are driving this. And it’s taken too far.

And one misplaced thing about the whole debate in Washington, from a centrist point of view, is this wrapping of necessary policy choices into terms like “shared sacrifice” and “protecting the most vulnerable”. It’s simply about what works. Delusional economics creates disaster for all. At this point it’s not about “fairness” – it’s about survival.

Luckily though, according to polls, a solid 80% of the people are already on the right page in terms of choosing a balanced approach, views on the digusting July in congress, taking the middle road for the future, and doing what’s right to fix the country and move forward.

So right now it’s all about cleaning out the crazies in congress, passing some bills to make jobs and new revenues, and curbing the 1% parasites. The sooner, the better.

Pragmatism is dead.

No mix. No pragmatism.

That is, it shouldn’t be, it’s well alive among many, it’s our only hope in the long run – but it’s lost in America in terms of power and governance at the moment.

The whole founding of America was based on “Yes, Both”. Both citizens of a Union and a State, both work hard and have a good life, both dream of the future and be realistic in practical matters. It was supposed to be the pragmatic attitude that a little of this and a little of that is what probably works best. The “right mix”, “about right”, this for now and we’ll adjust a bit as we go along. Very seldom either – or, but usually some of this, that and that. All happy – all well.

But now, the prevailing mentality seems to be shifting towards hard ideology and a widening belief in purity and all-or-nothing approaches to practical problems in society. Which very seldom works, and only in brief moments when the context by coincidence fits. But the context is constantly changing – which is why the mix has to change accordingly and continuously.

And the problem of mass ideologies – is that when it doesn’t fit anymore – most people just apply more and more of the same. Right-wingers running the errands of private money is nothing new, it will never go away, it is containable in certain amounts, but it is massively destructive on a larger and dominant scale.

Which brings us back to the theatre of the summer.

When taxes were very high, cutting made sense. When they are very low, raising makes sense. But already you can hear the ultra-ideologues screaming.

Let’s be pragmatic. Let’s raise some taxes, and cut some spending.

And stop this devolving tendency into belief and ideology. Pragmatism works better.

Political Leadership.

Good job.

To some comfort, there are a lot of reports about the craftmanship of Andrew Cuomo when it comes to political leadership and this silent under-the-radar type of personal intervention, and turning people around to fit a larger plan and accomplishing things. Especially since we at the moment have a four year long period of at times frustrating and provocative deference and passivity from the White House. By misfortune and talents a nice and smart man got elected to the highest office in one of the largest nations on the planet – but after some clumsy failings in the start we got a permanent come late and full of excuses type of behavior from the executive branch. Always technically correct, but as things have become – Congress is not supposed to lead the country on issues like economy and social politics in the budget. The President is not supposed to be merely a manager of the executive departments, but an upright person of will who pulls things in needed directions.

Which is why a person like the Governor of New York State Andrew Cuomo is a relief and a needed counterweight for the daily observations of a vacuum in the federal leadership. He works the legislature, he has an agenda, he avoids the media even in the midst of huge successes – and he gets things done.

Which is why the future also may look brighter. Things should have become a lot better by now, but they will bounce back even more at some later point – with an even greater psychological boost of progress and positive change.

In the mean time we just have to wait. But put your self in the shoes of the rating agencies. How would you rate the probability of US Treasury paying all their bills on time. A perfect 100%? How would you rate the ability of the President to force the parties and congress to a solution on the budget and debt ceiling before August. A sure bet?

The only solace right now is that others and more able political leaders are grooming, and that the trust and outlook for the US will change for the better. Look to Cuomo and other promising candidates simmering around in the different states. Inspiration and promise looms.

Big disappointment: Marco Rubio.

High hopes.. but alas..

He was supposed to be something fresh and new, but so far it’s all party-speak and dogmas from the 80s..

Let’s jump to the problems:

• His maiden speech was 30 years late. This American Dream he talks about was an illusion fed as advertisement while the 1% consolidated power and most people suffered from slow decline.
• His maiden speech was loudly hailed by Mitch McConnell.
• His maiden speech was a soup of incoherent soundbites of others’ making.
• His waiting to enter the Senate podium as the last freshman to give a speech looked pretentious as he failed to deliver. There was nothing new or interesting there. Others like Sen. Paul by comparison, had well thought through positions and showed independence, good will and originality.

Then we had the reactions to Obama’s Presser this week..

• First, to show some potential for statemanship, one probably shouldn’t use phrases like “third-world leader” to put others down. The third-world leaders are listening. It is glaring in the context of racial tensions domestically. It’s too revealing of a mindset, even though it’s probably not coming from him, but something he heard at a meeting or in the hallways. But it’s immature, clumsy, inconsiderate and sticky.
• He looked personally insulted. Not good.
• He becomes a defender and spokesman of the 1%. He’s supposed to be the young people’s guy – to have broad appeal and widen the party base. This was pure establishment-talk.

But in more general terms..

The decades are shifting – and we’ll get nowhere before the moderate conservatives gain power on the right. This shows a young promising politician led straight into the 1% ideology, but who in different times and context could have been a strong and positive force for the country. He has the passion, drive and personality to become a national leader, but alas.. wrong shaping and wrong climate at the moment.

An angry young man, fighting for the corporate jet tax breaks.. even if it’s seen as an ideological fight, this looks a bit weird..