RealClearPolitics flips all states according to average polling – ending on a final score of 347 Obama/Biden, 191 to Romney/Ryan. Continue reading
Tag Archives: 2012
Obama Campaign: We’re winning.
Jim Messina on the path to 270:
“In all the battleground states, we continue to see all our pathways there,” he told the White House pool at an Obama fundraiser in Milwaukee. “We’re either tied or in the lead in every battleground state 45 days out.”
(..) “I think you will see a tightening in the national polls going forward,” he said. “What I care way more about it Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, etc. In those states, I feel our pathways to victory are there. There are two different campaigns, one in the battlegrounds and one everywhere else. That’s why the national polls aren’t relevant to this campaign.”
Senate Forecast Update.
Nate puts an 80% chance of Democratic Majority in the Senate next Congress – up from 70% just a few days ago.
Forecast Sept 20th, 2012.
.
Frum on Romney’s 10 biggest problems.
David Frum went on a little twitter rant today – listing the ten biggest reasons why Romney’s campaign is struggling these days:
(1) This AM’s Politico story about Stuart Stevens being to blame for Romney campaign’s troubles utterly misses the point.
(2) The Romney campaign has a messaging problem because it has a policy problem.
(3) The policy problem is that the Romney campaign offers nothing but bad news to hardpressed Americans and the broader middle class.
(4) How do you message: I’m doing away w Medicaid over the next 10 yrs, Medicare after that, to finance a cut in the top rate of tax to 28%?
(5) I don’t care if you hire the people who produce the ATT ads that make my wife cry, there’s no lipsticking that pig.
(6) The problem isn’t the campaign leadership; it’s the party’s followership
(7) Over course of campaign, Romney has changed from a pragmatic, capable manager into a dog-whistling culture warrior.
(8) Candidate cd have and shd have resisted that pressure – but it’s rich for ppl who demanded the change to complain about consequences.
(9) I thought Stevens’ – drafted Tampa speech did good job of humanizing the man, Mitt Romney
(10) But voters do care about the q: what will this presidency do for me? And “dick you over” is not a winning answer
Presidential Debates – in October.
Here’s the schedule (courtesy 2012 Election Central):
October 3, 2012 |
Topic: Domestic policy Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time Location: University of Denver in Denver, Colorado (Tickets) Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates Participants: President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney Moderator: Jim Lehrer (Host of NewsHouron PBS)The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic. |
| October 11, 2012 Vice Presidential  |
Topic: Foreign and domestic policy Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time Location: Centre College in Danville, Kentucky (Tickets) Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates Participants: Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan Moderator: Martha Raddatz (ABC News Chief Foreign Correspondent) The debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics and be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the question. |
| October 16, 2012 |
Topic: Town meeting format including foreign and domestic policy Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time Location: Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York (Tickets) Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates Participants: President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney Moderator: Candy Crowley (CNN Chief Political Correspondent) The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues. Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion. The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization. |
| October 22, 2012 |
Topic: Foreign policy Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time Location: Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida (Tickets) Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates Participants: President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney Moderator: Bob Schieffer (Host of Face the Nation on CBS) The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate and will focus on foreign policy. |
Electoral Math.
Three months to go – the popular vote looks even – but the electoral vote forecast has a wide spread.
The lead is growing.
From Tomasky/Pwire:
“There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know — or should — but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.”
Nate Silver puts the forecast for Obama winning at 71% and growing – with 300 electoral votes, Romney with 238.
Read more.
McCain smacks down Huma’s assailants.
Wow – this is strong and good stuff from McCain. To the rescue of Hillary’s aide Huma!
The allegations are crap.
From his speech:
“Mr. President: Rarely do I come to the floor of this institution to discuss particular individuals. But I understand how painful and injurious it is when a person’s character, reputation, and patriotism are attacked without concern for fact or fairness. It is for that reason that I rise today to speak in defense of Huma Abedin.
(..) “Put simply, Huma represents what is best about America: the daughter of immigrants, who has risen to the highest levels of our government on the basis of her substantial personal merit and her abiding commitment to the American ideals that she embodies so fully. I am proud to know Huma, and to call her my friend.
(..) “To say that the accusations made in both documents are not substantiated by the evidence they offer is to be overly polite and diplomatic about it. It is far better, and more accurate, to talk straight: These allegations about Huma, and the report from which they are drawn, are nothing less than an unwarranted and unfounded attack on an honorable citizen, a dedicated American, and a loyal public servant.
(..) “I have every confidence in Huma’s loyalty to our country, and everyone else should as well. All Americans owe Huma a debt of gratitude for her many years of superior public service. I hope these ugly and unfortunate attacks on her can be immediately brought to an end and put behind us before any further damage is done to a woman, an American, of genuine patriotism and love of country.”
Some smackdown of Michele Bachmann – and possibly a part of a much larger game within the GOP, about who gets to decide the agenda, and what kind of stuff is fair game from now till November.
Read full statement..
Death Star on Gingrich vs. on Obama
Just a note – as some wonder what happened to the negative ad barrage from Romney in the primaries; All candidates are not equally flawed – or easy to squash.
It’s not equally effective – on all targets.
Using negative ads to take down a Santorum, a Gingrich – or now a Romney – by simply presenting historical facts or examining their proclaimed prime qualifications, that is not dirty games. It’s relevant and fair games.
But presenting a long history of outsourcing, tax havens or secretivness about tax returns has a very different effect politically than the facts of a slow recovery or flat unemployment rate – at least for the moment.
From Pwire:
“Newt Gingrich complained loudly — some called it whining — when Romney first hit him with a negative ad barrage in Iowa. Then, when Romney attacked on a far bigger scale in Florida, Gingrich reacted badly again. Privately, the Romney campaign, which at times seemed to delight at kicking the hell out of a Republican opponent, had no respect for Gingrich’s tendency to complain when attacked. Just take it and hit back harder — that was the way they saw it. Now, however, Romney is complaining about Obama’s attacks. Romney is far more self-controlled than Gingrich, but the effect is the same; he’s whining about the other guy treating him badly. It’s the same thing that happened in the primary campaign, only with Romney on the hurting end.”
Read more.
