Winning the House for Democrats still seems like a far fetched dream….picking up 25 seats… but the GOP majority could be a lot less next session… and the Republican spending so far indicates a belief in a replay of 2010… going on offense on Democratic Districts… instead of securing their own…
Republicans bet the House on staying on offense
If the GOP’s House majority is in jeopardy, somebody forgot to tell the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The NRCC, the committee charged with keeping Republicans in control of the House, is spending nearly as much on offensive opportunities as on defense so far this cycle. That’s despite Democrats’ predictions that they could take 25 seats from Republicans and regain the majority.
To this point, the NRCC has spent about 39 percent of its money pursuing Democratic-held districts and 47 percent defending Republican-held districts, according to a Fix review of reports from the committee’s independent expenditure arm, which spends nearly all of the money going to individual races.
Democrats, by comparison, are playing more than twice as much offense as defense, spending 62 percent of their funds in GOP-held districts and 28 percent defending their own districts.
It was clear from the beginning of this election cycle that the 2012 race would be fought largely on GOP terrain; Republicans took 63 seats from Democrats in 2010 and have their biggest majority in six decades, so most of the traditionally competitive districts are held by a Republican.
But Republicans have played a surprising amount of offense, and that could wind up looking like either a stroke of genius or a huge mistake.