The swing states are steadily shifting towards the Democratic Vote –
updated numbers from Nate Silver are: 76% chance of Obama win, with 308 electors.
Tag Archives: nate silver
Senate Forecast update: Leaning Dem.
After Tea Party Rep. Todd Akin’s statements about “legitimate rape” last night – the Missouri Senate Race tips to leaning Dems, raising the total tally to 48 solid/lean Dems for US Senate – and six tossups.
I misspoke. And probably gave away the Senate.
From Nate Silver:
No two controversies are alike, and we’ll have to wait for polling data to see what impact this has on the race. But based on some loose historical precedents, the remarks could be enough to swing the polls to Ms. McCaskill.
Also – this ties VP Candidate Paul Ryan (and Romney) into the loop, piling on to a long period of hard right using women issues as a wedge and antagonizing the female vote.
Probably moving the focus away from Medicare back onto social issues – and very far away from jobs and the economy.
And once again – unlimited private money pulls the right far too far to the right – messing up things with fringe candidates and losing any chance of real productive influence.
