Thanks for a great year everyone – and Happy 2013!!

Thanks for a great year everyone – and Happy 2013!!

While the odds for the WH are pretty stable at 70% win for Democrats, and possibly growing after the Ryan pick – the Congress is more of a tossup:
The House looks decided with 229 solid or leaning Republican, majority is at 218.
The Senate is close with 47 solid/leaning Dems and 46 solid/leaning Republican. The seven tossup states are Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The most media-friendly races might be Maine after the resignation of Olympia Snowe and a three-way race, the big battle in Massachusetts with Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren, Virginia after Jim Webb, and Wisconsin as the home state of Paul Ryan and Gov. Scott Walker.
In short: Most likely another deadlocked Congress with no super-majority in the Senate.
Read more here.
In a new twist to the ongoing SuperPAC circus – a new non-partisan Friends of Democracy is now setting up attacks on enemies of campaign finance reform on Capitol Hill.
Every little effort to curb money into politics is good at this point..
Jonathan Soros has started a new Super PAC aimed at lessening the impact of Super PACs. He wants to use the $5 million to $8 million he plans on raising for negative ads aiming at politicians who oppose campaign finance reform.
(..) In the next four months, Mr. Soros and a small team at Friends of Democracy, the new Super PAC, are going to pick 10 to 15 House lawmakers whose records and public statements have not been supportive of what Mr. Soros calls a system of “citizen-led” elections.
Read full story.
From the Science Fair in the White House – this is feelgood politics and something the kid will remember for the rest of his life:
POTUS’ helping hand at the pump at 1:30
In other good news:
People on both sides are now working together against the latest NDAA bill, giving the government the possiblity to lock up anyone for life without trial – merely on suspicion.
“Any statute that could possibly be interpreted to allow a president to detain American citizens without charge or trial is incredibly alarming,” said Landry, a freshman lawmaker and member of the Tea Party Caucus who has introduced a bill in the House to clarify the law.
[..] “You go down a slippery slope,” Franken (D-Sen.) told The Hill. “To not give people a hearing, to not give an American citizen the right to have his case heard in a court — I think that’s one of our basic rights. Once we’re starting to get rid of our basic rights, we’re in real trouble.”
Finally some pushback on the 1% doctrine.
Since Congress doesn’t pass anything – the lobbyists hoard their cash.
From The Hill:
Spending on lobbying declined last year for the first time in more than a decade, according to a campaign finance watchdog.
The Center for Responsive Politics reported Thursday that more than $3.27 billion was spent on lobbying activities in 2011, a drop from the more than $3.51 billion that was spent in 2010. The center said the total for 2011 spending should rise a a little because about 10 percent of the fourth-quarter lobbying reports still need to be processed.
For some reference; The Obama Campaign of ’08 cost $750 million. A Senate Seat costs about $25 million. So a normal of $3.5 billion a year in lobbying – it’s a lot.
There’s a long feature on the up-coming “Obamas” book in the Ny Times this morning, and it’s not all gossip.. Some of these stories are important to understand some of the strategic movements in Obama’s 1. term – and it also seems to reveal a couple of the rookie mistakes that were being done early on, due to Barack’s lack of management skills and experience.
It’s also a reminder that the third year has brought some palpable changes to the Presidents choice of acitivities (spending lots of hours on touring/selling the Jobs Act), and to his shift of attitude from always consensus and “legitimate viewpoints”, to sometimes spelling out that some of these extremist’s positions are just plain “wrong”.
Full story here.