Chris Cillizza breaks it down today.
These 9 States are the battleground for 2012:
- North Carolina
- New Mexico
All of these states were red states in 2004, but turned blue in 2008. If Obama loses all nine, and keeps the rest that he won last time – the electoral count will be 247 (270 is winning).
If he gets 23 electoral votes out of those nine states (out of 112 possible), and keeps the rest from last time, he gets a second term. And even if he loses some other states in the Rust Belt like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, he could win Arizona or Georgia in the South – and be a probable win in 2012.
The odds might be better than the polls.