Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So Go Romney’s Chances?

Swing State Iowa is polling pretty consistently around +4 for Obama.. and is often predicting the outcome of elections.. but could still swing back and end up for Romney…


Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So Go Romney’s Chances?:

Saturday, not Sunday, is the news media’s traditional day of rest — and so it is the slowest day of the week for polling.

But the national tracking polls were published on Saturday, and continued to show President Obama in a fairly strong position. He held at a six-point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll, although his approval rating dipped. He also maintained a rough seven-point advantage in the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll. Mr. Obama also pulled ahead to take a two-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which had differed from other polling firms by previously showing a tie. (Another national tracking poll, from Ipsos, is not regularly published on the weekends.)

We’re getting to the point in the campaign where a day on which the polls are in line with expectations is a winning one for Mr. Obama, since Mr. Romney trails in the race and now has just five full weeks to make the deficit up. Mr. Obama’s forecast rose slightly, to an 83.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, from 82.7 percent on Friday.

(..) Iowa ranks seventh on our list of tipping-point states, but it packs a lot of bang for the buck because its television markets are fairly small and cheap to advertise in. We estimate that a dollar spent there will do twice as much to sway the Electoral College outcome as one spent in Florida.

(Via FiveThirtyEight)


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