Here are the numbers – for bumps and debates since 1988.
What stands out the most is GHWB’s second debate in 1992 – and Bush 43 in his first debate in 2004. Even if both candidates evened out over the course of three debates.
Biggest loss overall though is Al Gore in 2000…
And with this as background, it’s hard pressed to see the debates this month alone being capable of shifting the lead against Obama – especially not in the Swing States..
Courtesy of Thomas Holbrook. More discussion is in his post. These numbers show why, based on recent history, it would be unusual for the debates alone to close the gap between Obama and Romney.
(Via The Monkey Cage)