Douglas Schoen: An Opening for Elizabeth Warren If She Wants It

This issue continues to be important.. things can suddenly change in March/April.. and a new polling in the first primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire shows interesting things..
A change of mind from Warren would also be a lot less dramatic than Mitt Romney suddenly running again..
Warren has a very strong drive.. but she will say no no no until she says yes..

http://www.wsj.com/articles/douglas-schoen-an-opening-for-elizabeth-warren-if-she-wants-it-1422232305

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren told Fortune magazine this month that she won’t run for president in 2016, deepening the sense that the Democratic nomination is Hillary Clinton’s for the asking. Yet in contemporary politics the landscape can change dramatically, seemingly overnight. Before 2008 Barack Obama said repeatedly that he wasn’t running for president.

If Elizabeth Warren doesn’t change her mind, it could be because of intimidating national polls showing Mrs. Clinton with an overwhelming lead. Most recently, a CNN/ORC poll had the former secretary of state with a 66%-9% advantage over Ms. Warren.

(..) But Mrs. Clinton’s favorables don’t appear to make her invulnerable to a populist challenge from the left, as a Warren campaign would almost certainly be. My polling shows that there is a significant opening with Democratic primary voters who are extremely liberal in ideology and populist in orientation.

I also tested Mrs. Clinton’s message, based on her public statements, of charting a new direction and standing up for working people against Ms. Warren’s more explicitly populist direction in which government addresses fundamental unfairness in American society through more oversight of Wall Street and policies to reduce income inequality. In that message comparison, Ms. Warren polled a mere four points behind Mrs. Clinton, at 31% to 35%.

Ms. Warren could find similar encouragement in New Hampshire, the nation’s first primary state and neighbor of the senator’s state of Massachusetts. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Mrs. Clinton led Ms. Warren by only nine points, 51%-42%. The two had virtually identical favorable ratings at 89%-5% for Ms. Warren, 90%-5% for Mrs. Clinton.

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An interesting and neutral discussion on the polling is here:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4022385382001/could-warren-trump-clinton-in-early-primary-states/

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