Clinton’s Lead Shrinks Further

This summer and early fall has not been good for Hillary.. a steady slide.. and a not very good handling of her challenges..
And it’s just September..

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http://politicalwire.com/2015/09/10/clintons-lead-shrinks-further/

A new CNN/ORC poll shows Hillary Clinton’s lead in the race for the Democratic nomination “has fallen to just 10 points, and at the same time, her advantage in hypothetical general election matchups against the top Republican contenders has vanished.”

Clinton leads with 37%%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 27% and Vice President Joe Biden at 20%.

In the general election matchups, Clinton trails Ben Carson by 51% to 46%, while running about evenly with both Jeb Bush, 49% to 47%, and Donald Trump, 48% to 48%.

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7 thoughts on “Clinton’s Lead Shrinks Further

    • Great work with the article.

      What odds would you give Sanders vs. Hillary today, if we incorporate some more months of the current, and likely, trajectory?

      And how do you see the Trump show?

      I’m inclined to think like this:
      Jeb – will never recover, as he doesn’t really want this IMO.
      Biden – he’s emotionally broken. He won’t run. I love him as a person though.

      Which brings us to three likely winners in 2016:

      Trump, Hillary and Sanders.

      All which seem kind of unlikely, for various reasons. But my feeling is that Trump will become the GOP nominee, and beat whoever becomes the Dem nominee.

      No matter how absurd Trump 45 sounds.

      But maybe the tilted electoral college will give us a Sanders 45 instead.

      It’s just strange to write – all of this.

      • “What odds would you give Sanders vs. Hillary today, if we incorporate some more months of the current, and likely, trajectory?”

        Really tough question! There are too many unknowns to make reasonably useful predictions, but I will say:

        I think Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire.
        – Clinton will tend to better the more politics as usual predominates — big states like California, Texas, maybe New York, where ad buys necessarily play a bigger role than face-to-face grassroots campaigning like in Vermont, New Hampshire, Iowa.

        Sanders can beat Clinton (it will be a very uphill struggle for sure) the way Obama did — establish an early lead in pledged delegates and then break even the rest of the way. But that possibility only works based on the assumption that Biden doesn’t jump in. I agree emotionally he’s not in a position to run, but Clinton’s email scandal is a lot more serious from a legal standpoint than the corporate media is making it out to be (to say nothing from a political and moral standpoint). The e-mail scandal is like radiation — the gift that keeps on poisoning, drip, drip, drip and I suspect party leaders will successfully pressure Biden into jumping in as the establishment’s plan B against Sanders since Al Gore (lol) and John Kerry (lol x2!!) ain’t gonna cut it. Also, this run would be the single best shot Biden has ever had in his life at actually becoming president — he will easily pull double-digits in places like Iowa, the media is already treating him with kid gloves, and Obama himself would almost certainly endorse and possible campaign for him if he jumped in.

        Trump… it’s a hard situation for me to read; I’m a lot less familiar with the Republican electorate. I’m skeptical he’ll win the nomination in the final analysis because what makes him a frontrunner today is the fact that there are like 16 non-Trump Republicans running against him. If the Republican establishment can unite and get behind 1 guy (or two), Trump will not be so formidable as he appears now. Going into this race, I thought the most likely nominees on the GOP side were Bush, Rubio, and Walker but looking at things now I tend to think that Bush may be the only guy in the field with the money and baseline electoral support to slug it out successfully with Trump in a 50-state campaign. What would be really interesting is if the Super PAC money machines keep a bunch of candidates in the race even after the early contests (usually what happens is campaign donations dry up once a candidate gets crushed with 5% of the vote or less in early votes) and the Republicans end up with a brokered convention since no one has enough pledged delegates to clinch the party’s nomination. If that were to happen (a ‘yoooj’ if), the Republicans would enter the general election badly divided, many of them unhappy with whoever got the nod and possibly unable to mobilize their base wholeheartedly which would put the Democratic nominee (hopefully Sanders) in a strong position even before the first shot was fired in the general.

        I don’t think Trump would win in the general but against Clinton, maybe. Trump vs. Clinton would really be a horrible election for everyone and it would turn into probably one of the most nasty, negative campaigns in U.S. history with God knows what kind of attack ads going both ways and probably low turnouts as well. I tend to think more voters (especially independents) would be more anti-Trump than anti-Clinton but such a negative race could depress voter turnout significantly and that would of course benefit the GOP. It’s not a possibility I seriously want to think about. lol

        • Very interesting stuff.

          The email thing – the “nothing was marked classified” defense is baffling. I would think that to some extent lots of things a Secretary of State says or thinks is in itself classified. Since it comes from a Secretary of State. And if she comments on a public story about drones, that has to be sensitive information I would assume.

          It would be a shock though, if she has to pull out. But it could happen.

          Side-thought; I lived a year in Italy and they always talked about how voting was something you did with both hands; “one to insert the ballot in the box, the other one to hold your nose.”

          • Re: classified. That’s just a Clinton Inc. talking point, and unfortunately a very effective one. However, talking points don’t necessarily work on federal judges and prosecutors. Of course a lot of the decisions they’ll make around this will be political (or tainted by politics), but even in the worst case scenario that no charges are pressed, the GOP won’t ever let the issue die in the election.

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