Just a little update – our earlier predictions from October 13th about Trump vs. Hillary for the next election seem to hold..
Both have a commanding lead in their parties, and in a few days we’re entering December..
This also has potentially big implications for the upcoming shifts in US domestic and foreign policy, 1 year from now.
Republican insiders tell Politico that Donald Trump “could take two of the first four early voting states, though they caution his hold on Iowa is weak.”
“Roughly three-in-four GOP insiders in New Hampshire and South Carolina, many of whom have been repeatedly and consistently skeptical of Trump’s chances, now say he would win their states if their primaries were held today… But his hold on Iowa and Nevada is more tenuous, according to insiders who note those states’ caucuses require significant organizational muscle to produce a win.”
After Biden’s decision yesterday – Hillary is the nominee. Sanders will never win this. Unless Hillary is disqualified..
Hillary Clinton tightened her grip on the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination Wednesday, when Vice President Biden announced he would not launch a White House bid.
Biden’s decision to stay on the sidelines, coupled with Clinton’s commanding performance in last week’s debate in Las Vegas, gives the former secretary of State a strong wind at her back ahead of her testimony Thursday to the House Select Committee on Benghazi.
(..) Now, all has changed. Some experts even tell The Hill that the battle for the nomination is as good as over.
A few months from now we might be looking at Trump vs. Hillary as the most likely choice for 2016…
Hillary has little realistic competition in Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden does not seem to be prepared to run for a third time..
As for Trump.. he has a strong following by now.. and in the end, many on the right might very reluctantly have to end up supporting him… Fiorina & Carson are probably too narrow candidates and too much of a protest polling answer… Rubio & Bush could be too much controlled by the donors… so Trump will probably win the early states, especially NH and SC, but probably Iowa too.
So to the last point.. the general match-up… Hillary had a +20 lead vs. Trump this summer, but only a +2 or +3 during the last month..
Trump vs. Hillary..
Donald Trump leads in the race for the Republican presidential nomination in Connecticut but trails in matchups with top Democratic candidates, according to a new poll.
Trump is supported by 34 percent of registered Republicans in the state, followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 14 percent and businesswoman Carly Fiorina at 11 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday morning.
Another stunning national poll.. Sanders is just 7 points behind… and Hillary’s trajectory is in free-fall….
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday morning found Clinton with 42 percent support nationally, compared to Sanders’s 35 percent.
If Vice President Joe Biden does not run, pollsters found, Clinton’s lead over Sanders rises to 15 points. Biden had 17 percent support in the survey.
Clinton held a 34-point lead over Sanders in July, and a 60-point lead in June.
The head of the NSA gives a brief assessment about how a Russian FM Lavrov private email server would have been seen by the Intelligence Community..
Today Admiral Michael Rogers, head of the National Security Agency, testified before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee on cybersecurity. Senator Tom Cotton asked him two questions, the second of which was brilliant: 1) Are the communications of the president’s most senior advisors, including those that may be unclassified, a “top priority for foreign intelligence services?” and 2) What would he think if he learned that Russia’s Foreign Minister, or Iran’s, was conducting official business on a homebrew server?
This is stunning.. Sanders is 10 ahead in Iowa, 22 ahead in NH..
And “only” 23 behind in SC.. where Hillary had plus 60-70, just a couple of months ago…
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is up by double-digits on former secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to a poll released by CBS News on Sunday.
The senator is drawing 43 percent support in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, besting Clinton by 10 points.
Sanders is also drawing 52 percent support in New Hampshire, almost doubling Clinton, who sits at 30 percent support in the Granite State.
Clinton, however, doubles-up Sanders in South Carolina, drawing 46 percent compared to the senator’s 23 percent.
More strange news about Hillary.. …
Democrats in Palm Beach County, Fla. were taken aback in recent weeks when they asked former president Bill Clinton and then later Hillary Clinton to be the keynote speaker for the annual Kennedy-Truman-Johnson dinner next month — and both Clintons declined.
The county, which ended up determining the fate of the 2000 election, is a must-win for any presidential hopeful. And when the dinner’s organizers found out Hillary Clinton would be in the South Florida a day earlier to attend a fundraiser, they were doubly perplexed.
“It’s a little odd, to be honest,” said one Democrat familiar with the dinner. “Here’s a sold-out dinner with a friendly audience and she’s not taking advantage."
This thing is consuming her campaign.. if there’s nothing there.. it has been handled very badly by Hillary.. even if the attacks are politically motivated..
Late last month, Hillary Rodham Clinton stood before a line of television cameras at a rural Iowa campaign stop to deny reports that she had sent sensitive information over her private e-mail system.
(..) The next week, however, law enforcement officials became interested, and the campaign’s apparent lack of concern began to turn into a sense of anxiety.
“They’re worried about it,” said a longtime Clinton adviser and confidant who agreed to discuss the mood of the campaign team only on the condition of anonymity. “They don’t know where it goes. That’s the problem.”